| Type | Weekly newsletter |
|---|---|
| Format | Newsletter |
| Publisher | University of Virginia Center for Politics |
| Editor | Larry Sabato |
| Founded | 2002 |
| Political alignment | Nonpartisan |
| Headquarters | Charlottesville, Virginia, USA |
| Circulation | 12,000 |
| Official website | Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball |
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan weekly online newsletter and comprehensive website in the United States that analyzes the current American political scene and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors, and U.S. president races. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
Over the past decade, the Crystal Ball has garnered a reputation for fair analysis and accurate predictions and is frequently cited by journalists and other political watchers.[1]
Contents |
The Crystal Ball was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato.[2] For the midterm elections, the Crystal Ball tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign. In addition, over 1,500 people subscribed to its weekly e-mail updates.[2]
In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.6%), 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races (94%), and 32 of the 36 governor’s races (88%).
Following a post-election hiatus, the Crystal Ball re-launched on January 27, 2003 with an eye towards the 2004 election cycle.[2] In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention in Boston and the Republican National Convention in New York City. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).[3]
During the 2006 election cycle the Crystal Ball added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The Crystal Ball predicted a 29 seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate, both of which were exactly right.[4]
Race by race, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 417 of 435 U.S. House races (96%), 33 of 33 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 35 of 36 gubernatorial races (97%).
In August 2007, the Crystal Ball added respected political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of Congressional Quarterly and editor of the America Votes series.[5] Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the Cook Political Report and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President, the Crystal Ball published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama would win in a near-landslide.[6]
In the elections of November 2008, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 35 of 35 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally.[7][8]
The 2010 elections marked the fifth federal election cycle in which the Crystal Ball has been published.
Sabato's predictions about the U.S. House were true, that the Republicans would gain 63 seats, more than Sabato's 60 seats that he said the Republicans would gain.
In 2006, the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism rated the Crystal Ball as the most accurate of all pre-election predictors.[1] In addition, anchors of MSNBC, Fox News, and CNBC all praised its accuracy.[9] Over the years, many journalists and political watchers have recognized the Crystal Ball for its singular record of accuracy, including Fred Barnes, Lester Holt, Steve Doocy, Larry Kudlow, Carl Cameron, Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times, and Will Vehrs of Punditwatch.[2][4]
Over the Crystal Ball’s history, it has published articles from staff members and a variety of well-known guest columnists, including:[10][11]